I'm not Nostradamus. Nostradumbas is more accurate. I can neither predict the future nor turn lead to gold.
Truth be told, it's trying to turn lead into gold that made people think they could predict the future. But I digress.
My news feed is full of future prediction and commentary on why they were wrong on the last prediction. A lot of someone said but not a whole lot of anyone did. A ton of gossip with an ounce of truth. Not much who what when and where but a lot of what if and here's why.
I think they need to retitle the onslaught of anti headlines to junk conveyor.
So the last thing I want to do is make blind suppositions about what's going to happen next. Anything could happen next. That's the closest you'll get to a prediction out of me.
Personally, when I want to get an idea of what might happen in the future, I take a good look at the past. What has happened before?
For instance, poll after poll suggested most voters this year believe the economy will fare better under Republican control. It's the old businessman in charge argument.
But will the economy really do better under Republicans? Surely there's evidence in the historical record. A little bit of research reveals a lot of numbers. Do they really favor the Rs?
The short answer is not so much.
According to several neutral sources, the U.S. economy has suffered 6 full recessions since 1980. The first was under a Democrat, Jimmy Carter. The rest have been under Republican administrations. In my lifetime there have been 9 recessions, 7 under Republican administrations.
The Great Depression began under a Republican administration. But I doubt any of you remember that so it probably didn't even happen, right?
On the other hand, of the 6 highest economic growth years since 1980, Reagan had one and the other 5 were under Democrats, including the current administration.
So again, I"m not going to predict what's going to happen, but the evidence of the historical record says what will happen is the opposite of the wishful thinking of the American electorate.
Here's a simple truth. A businessman has no more chance of being a successful president than a plumber has of being a successful surgeon. Actually, a successful businessman has less chance because all he has to do is make money. A plumber has to make things work without causing more problems, which is what a surgeon is supposed to do. At least they have the same basic goal.
But running a government has nothing to do with making money and everything to do with serving the public. All a businessman sees the public as is a source of revenue. Not only are these two purposes non-congruent, they are diametrically opposed.
You might as well put a rapist in charge of the justice department. Or a vaccine denier in charge of the CDC. How does a talking head as secretary of defense sound?
Like a clown car headed for a cliff. Thus saith Nostradumbas. Now where's my lead?