It seems every tv talking head and basement maven of bloggery is asking what's to blame for the rise of the Donald. There's a theory behind every keyboard and our keys are no exception.
Wild speculation is our specialization here at Paddling Upstream. Our speculation specializes in specificity and that makes us special. But you already knew that.
So who or what's to blame for the three ring circus known as candidate Trump? The answer is as obvious as the sweat beads that break out on your forehead when you consider a President Trump.
The answer my friends is John F Kennedy. Yes, the overwhelming opinion of all the opinionators here at the Paddling Upstream braintrust is we blame Kennedy for Trump.
In 1960, candidate Kennedy and candidate Richard Nixon squared off in the first nationally televised presidential debate. Throughout the country, in millions of homes, Americans got to see the two candidates side by side.
Kennedy looked strong and confident, unfazed by the pressure of the moment. Nixon looked pale, unshaven and a bit demented on the TV screen. Kennedy won the election and everyone credits the debate for Nixon's loss.
From that moment, the television visual became the most powerful weapon in American politics. Commercials helped Lyndon Johnson swamp Barry Goldwater in the 1964 election and the disastrous visuals of race riots and the Vietnam War on nightly news ensured he had no chance in 1968.
The Great Communicator Reagan didn't really need television to get elected in 1980, Jimmy Carter did most of the heavy lifting for him. But President Raygun changed the rules of how involved televsion could really be in our national politics. Before cable, television news was bound to reporting and only reporting thanks to the Fairness Doctrine.
Once Reagan killed the rule and made Rupert Murdoch an American citizen, television went from reporting news to making up news. And reality. Before long television would be the driver of American politics.
The first truly television savy presidential candidate was the first baby boomer President, Bill Clinton in 1992. By appearing on late night tv shows with a pair of shades and a shiny saxophone, he sewed up the election faster than you could say woof woof woof woof.
Since then, the rise of cable and the internet have blurred the lines of reality and virtuality. The biggest impact has been on our politics, where there is a 24/7 "news" channel whose primary duty is to shill for a political party. Of course, that channel begat another channel to shill for the other party. Minor cable and web channels manufacture their own echo chambers to add to the confusion.
So after 56 years, the flickering images of a strong and confident John Kennedy have devolved into the preening reality tv star we all know as Donald Trump, the current leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.
It's not an accident that a reality tv star would be the choice of a party dominated by a TV channel. It probably isn't an accident that 20% of Trump supporters think Lincoln shouldn't have issued the Emancipation Proclamation and that 38% of Trump supporters wish the south had won the Civil War.
We may blame Kennedy, but he'd love the irony in that.