In a couple of days, many of you will be tempted to make your spring travel plans based on the vision of a critter best suited for burgoo. Do not yield to that temptation, my friend.
We've come way too far to prognosticate seasonal change by groundhog. This is the 21st century, we have satellites and weather stations and meteorologists with computer models. We have twenty-four-seven cable channels warning you weeks in advance when someplace you don't live is going to get a foot of snow.
But still, every February 2nd, we pray a big rodent sticks its head out of a hole and doesn't see a shadow. I've noticed lot of people on the TV sure are afraid of shadows, but hardly any of them are weathermen.
So why do we persist with this groundhog thing? Why do we even need a groundhog when all we're really looking for is whether or not it's a cloudy morning? Technically, it could be anything that throws a shadow. Like a rabbit or a lamp-post or a tall building.
And why are we looking on February 2nd? What's wrong with the 1st? A culture as advanced as ours should be able to predict seasonal changes more than a couple weeks out, that's all I know. We don't wait until August to predict the start of football season.
I'm going to steal the groundhog's thunder and predict less than six more weeks of winter. That's right, I'm saying spring is just around the corner. It doesn't matter what the groundhog sees or doesn't see. And I've known this since before the leaves changed.
How could I know? How do I come up with a prediction so early that's more reliable than groundhog watcher technology?
Well, it's complicated. You need to be trained in scientific observation, first. Of course, you're going to need an assistant, because, well...don't all scientists have assistants? You're going to need a few years to gather data. Then you'll need a couple of computers to run all that data through lots of equations.
Finally, you're going to need a mature apple tree and squirrels, a more reliable class of rodent than any Pennsylvania groundhog.
About 3 summers ago, my pal...I mean assistant...Timmy and I noticed squirrels taking apples from the tree in his front yard. We watched while some apples hit the ground, some were picked by us, and several were carried away by squirrels. The following winter was normal.
Two summers ago, we noticed more squirrels picking and carrying away more apples. Through late summer, a steady stream of squirrells came and went from the tree. By early autumn, the tree was nearly empty of apples and none had fallen to the ground. We all remember last year's long and extreme winter, right?
Which brings me to this year's apple/squirrel observations. Last summer, we barely saw a squirrell and every apple on that tree hit the ground.
Yes, it's way more complicated than that little story, but trust me. Come Groundhog Day, I'm confident I'm way ahead of the game. I predict we'll be in shorts and sandals on Valentine's Day.
For those of you who love animals connection to the weather, next week I'll explain cows and climate change.